Bitcoin has underperformed compared to other “risk-on” assets this year — and if history’s anything to go by, its price could dip as low as $38,000 by October.
That’s according to a new report by NYDIG, which reveals that the asset’s current slump is down to supply mechanics rather than risk sentiment.
Bitcoin’s price has in the past moved with tech stocks but 2026 has been different: AI-related equities have soared while crypto markets have slumped. Bitcoin was recently priced at $64,809, down nearly 30% year-to-date and close to 50% less than its October all-time high of $126,080.
“Bitcoin’s 2025–2026 drawdown is bringing the 4-year cycle narrative back into focus, because the timing and structure increasingly resemble the prior reset years of 2014, 2018, and 2022 even though the path has not matched those drawdowns exactly,” the report read.
NYDIG revealed that Bitcoin’s year-to-date performance makes it the worst-performing asset — losing out against US treasuries, silver, and currencies like the Swiss Franc.
It added that if Bitcoin’s price action were to match other drawdowns — like the bear market of 2022 — a “potential cycle low near $38k-$39k” was possible.
The good news: Bitcoin had its least volatile year ever in 2025, and some analysts opining that this year’s drawdown may be shallower than in previous bear markets.
Is Bitcoin digital gold?
NYDIG added that Bitcoin’s rolling correlation with gold increased during 2026’s second quarter, with both assets experiencing sell-offs.
Bitcoin has been correlated to the precious metal in the past and Bitcoiners have described the top digital coin as “digital gold.”
But the asset last year was more correlated with US equities — especially tech stocks.
NYDIG added that other commodities experienced sell-offs in the second quarter of 2026, with the so-called debasement trade losing momentum. Traders in 2025 spoke of the “debasement trade” as a hot move to hedge against the dollar — and other fiat currencies — losing value.
Bitwise said in a report last week that while Bitcoin closed Q2 2026 in its deepest and longest downturn since the last bear market, the fundamentals are in place for a quick recovery, with regulators passing crypto-friendly legislation.
NYDIG added that the passing of the market-structure CLARITY Act “is the most important forward catalyst for the digital asset industry.”
“For Bitcoin, CLARITY’s direct price impact is less significant than for altcoins and crypto equities, but the investment implication remains material because a clearer U.S. market-structure regime would benefit the entire industry,” it noted.