Bitcoin is showing signs of stabilization after a brutal stretch, and research firm K33 says the on-chain evidence is difficult to ignore. In its latest market report, K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde pointed to a record share of Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders — a metric that, historically, has preceded the end of every major bear market in Bitcoin’s history.
Long-term holders now control 79% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, an all-time high that K33 says reflects a continued accumulation trend and a gradual shift toward a more constructive market environment.
That figure carries weight not as a standalone data point, but as part of a broader pattern: in every prior Bitcoin bear market, the circulating supply has tilted toward long-term holders as the market approached its trough.
The data on old coin reactivation reinforces the picture. As of June 6, only 218,421 BTC aged two years or more had been reactivated in 2026 — a near-historic low. The only year with lower reactivation by the same date was 2012, when 70,600 BTC had been reactivated.
The contrast with 2024 is stark: 1.18 million BTC had been reactivated by June 6 of that year, reflecting the heavy distribution that characterized the top of the previous cycle.
Lunde frames the current environment as one where long-term holders show diminished motivation to sell, with patient buyers absorbing whatever supply reaches the market.
Bitcoin ETF selling has eased
Other on-chain and market-structure indicators align with that thesis. Exchange-traded fund outflows — a dominant source of selling pressure in recent weeks — have eased. Trading volume has retreated to yearly lows, a pattern K33 associates with the late stages of Bitcoin bear markets rather than the beginning of fresh sell cycles.
Last week, Lunde noted that 50% of BTC’s circulating supply is now underwater, a level historically reached only within weeks of major bear market bottoms — though often with one final leg lower before a turn.
Not all analysts share K33’s cautious optimism. Wintermute, Glassnode, and Bitfinex have each flagged that ETF flows, stablecoin growth, and institutional demand have not yet reached levels consistent with a durable reversal.
Some forecasts put Bitcoin as low as $30,000 before any sustained recovery takes hold.
Bitcoin’s macro conditions
Macro conditions add another layer of uncertainty heading into the week. Today’s FOMC meeting — the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — has drawn close attention from the crypto market.
Rates are expected to hold steady, though markets are still pricing in the possibility of hikes later in 2026. With Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation to the S&P 500 sitting near 0.6, any shift in the Fed’s tone could hit BTC with an amplified reaction, as the asset tends to be more sensitive to macro developments during bear market conditions.
Against that backdrop, BTC posted a 5.5% gain over the past week, clawing back from two consecutive weeks of double-digit losses to trade near the $65,000 region as of this morning, June 17.
Month-over-month, the price remains down roughly 16% from a level near $79,000 in mid-May, and it trades nearly 40% below its all-time high of $126,198 reached in October 2025.